The short answer is no, not yet, and maybe not soon. The Federal Reserve has held its benchmark rate steady all year, the 10-year Treasury yield is sitting close to 5 percent, and futures markets are pricing a rate increase at the Fed’s next meeting rather than a cut. That backdrop has kept multi-year guaranteed annuity (MYGA) rates elevated.

What has the Federal Reserve actually done in 2026?

The Fed has not cut rates this year. At its July 28-29, 2026 meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee voted 9-3 to hold the federal funds target range at 3.50 percent to 3.75 percent, according to the Federal Reserve’s July 29 policy statement.

The three dissents are the telling part. All three members wanted to raise rates by a quarter point, not lower them.

The statement also said inflation “remains elevated relative to the Committee’s 2 percent goal,” pointing in part to energy prices. That is a very different backdrop than the rate-cutting cycle many people still associate with the Fed.

When is the next Fed meeting, and what does the market expect?

The next FOMC decision lands on Wednesday, September 16, 2026, and it comes with a fresh set of economic projections.

With five days to go, the CME FedWatch tool put the odds of a quarter-point rate hike above 85 percent, Yahoo Finance reported. A cut is essentially off the table in that pricing.

Markets can change their minds quickly, and a single inflation report can swing those odds. Still, the direction of the conversation right now is higher, not lower.

Where does the 10-year Treasury yield stand right now?

The 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.96 percent on September 11, 2026, its highest level since 2023, according to Seeking Alpha’s Treasury yields snapshot. It climbed almost 20 basis points in a single week.

The 10-year yield matters more to annuity pricing than the Fed’s overnight rate does, and I will explain why in a moment.

What has this meant for fixed annuity and MYGA rates?

Demand for fixed-rate products picked back up as yields rose. LIMRA’s final second-quarter figures put fixed-rate deferred annuity sales, the category that includes MYGAs, at $41.8 billion, up 17 percent from the first quarter, InvestmentNews reported.

Sales in that category were still 9 percent below a very strong second quarter of 2025. In other words, buyers came back as rates improved, but the rush has not matched last year’s pace.

None of this looks like an environment where fixed annuity rates are about to fall off a cliff. It looks more like a plateau, with a real chance rates firm up further if the Fed leans hawkish on September 16.

How does the Fed actually affect the rate an insurance company offers you?

This is the part that trips people up, so let me walk through it plainly.

An insurance company that sells you a MYGA takes your premium and invests it, mostly in high-quality bonds like U.S. Treasuries and investment-grade corporate debt, matched roughly to the length of your contract.

The yield the insurer can lock in on those bonds sets the ceiling for what it can pay you, after its own costs and margin. That is why the bond market, and the 10-year Treasury in particular, is a more direct driver of what a 5-year or 7-year MYGA pays than the Fed’s overnight rate by itself.

The Fed still matters. Its decisions move the whole yield curve and shape where bond investors expect rates to go next. But insurers reprice as their own investment yields shift, so there is usually a lag between a move in Treasury yields and a new MYGA rate showing up.

Lock in now, ladder, or wait?

I am a licensed insurance producer, I cannot tell you what to do with your money, and nobody can guarantee where rates go from here. What I can share is how people in this situation typically think through the tradeoffs.

Locking in a multi-year guarantee means you know exactly what you will earn for the length of that contract, regardless of what the Fed does next. If rates fall later, your number is already set. If rates keep rising, that money does not benefit from the increase.

Laddering, which means splitting money across a few terms such as 3, 5, and 7 years, is one way people balance that uncertainty. A portion comes due sooner and can be repositioned at each renewal, while the rest keeps earning its guarantee.

Shorter terms trade some yield for flexibility. Waiting has a cost too: rates are elevated today, and nothing in the Fed’s current posture points to a sharp drop, but nobody knows how long that lasts. You can compare current MYGA rates by term and carrier to see where things stand before deciding what fits your own timeline.

Frequently Asked Questions

Will annuity rates go down after the September 2026 Fed meeting?

Nobody can say for certain. Heading into the September 16 meeting, futures markets priced a much higher chance of a rate increase than a cut, which argues against an imminent drop in MYGA rates.

Does the Fed set annuity rates directly?

No. Insurance companies set their own crediting rates based mainly on what they earn investing premiums in bonds of a similar length to the contract. Fed decisions influence that bond market, but MYGA rates usually adjust with a lag.

Is it smart to wait for a better annuity rate?

It depends on your timeline and how much uncertainty you are comfortable with. Rates could rise further if the Fed hikes, but they could also ease later, and money sitting on the sidelines earns whatever it earns in the meantime.

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